Do You Believe The Polls?

If you believe the polls, then Biden wins and the radical left will control our government and our lives from now on.

But, if you look at how voters respond to Trump and Biden at their campaign stops, Trump will have four more years, and the Republicans will do well in Congressional races.

The pollsters have been terribly wrong in recent years. Republican pollster Frank Luntz said if the polls are wrong again about Donald Trump, “my profession is done.[i] People won’t trust the polls anymore.

Four years ago, the pollsters all said Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump and become President of the United States. The pollsters were stunned when Donald Trump beat her.

Bad polling data is not just a problem in America. After Nate Silver’s poll was way off in an election in Great Brittan, he said, “it’s become harder to find an election in which the polls did all that well.[ii]

Not reaching a cross section of voters is an ever increasing and serious problem for pollsters. Technology has changed – cell phones, caller ID, and the rise of telemarketers to annoy people.

As cell phones replaced landlines it became more difficult for pollsters to target a cross section of people from a specific area.

With so many telemarketers calling you, and with caller ID as your only defense, many people do not answer calls from unknown callers. Even if caller ID shows the caller is a pollster, how likely are you to answer the phone? You may wonder how the caller will use your information and whether your response could put you on a fund-raising list.

Author, Dr. Benjamin Knoll, Ph.D. theorized: “As the polling industry has increasingly come to be perceived as part of the “elite establishment” by many populist conservatives, a growing proportion of the Republican electorate may simply be refusing to participate in public opinion polls.”[iii]

An article appearing in the Wall Street Journal was titled, “Why Political Polls Are So Often Wrong.” The title continued, “Fewer landlines, fewer people willing to talk. And somehow conservatives tend to be undercounted.[iv][iv]

Back to President Donald Trump, most polls predict nothing but doom and gloom for the President, but conservative voters keep going to big rallies to support the President while Biden speaks to nearly empty parking lots.

We find it hard to believe the polls. We just don’t think the American people are ready to turn their lives over to the radical left.









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